Outlook for 2020
Interim Report for 1 January – 30 September 2020 (published 5 November 2020)
Market outlook for Caverion’s services and solutions
A large part of Caverion’s services is vital in keeping critical services and infrastructure up-and-running. This includes ensuring the continued functioning of energy and transportation infrastructure, health facilities, pharmaceutical and food industries, food retail and logistics as well as facilities and services used by public authorities. An important share of these services needs to be performed regardless of the corona pandemic. Going forward, the economic stimulus packages provided by governments and the EU are expected to increase infrastructure, health care and different types of sustainable investments in Caverion’s operating area. There was however no visible impact yet from such new governmental or EU-level stimulus packages in the third quarter.
At the beginning of the third quarter, the corona pandemic was well contained in most Caverion countries, while the second wave of corona started to be more visible at the end of the third quarter, again increasing the risk exposure. The second wave of corona is currently leading to renewed lockdown measures also in Caverion countries and increasing the negative business impacts in the fourth quarter. Any further restrictions such as limiting industrial operations and shutdowns or temporary close-downs of premises or construction sites would further impact Caverion’s revenue level and also profitability.
The corona crisis has led to a global downturn, but it is still unclear how deep and how long the downturn will be and what will be the speed of the economic recovery. The business volume and the amount of new order intake are important determinants to Caverion’s performance going forward. While the digitalisation and sustainability megatrends are in many ways favourable to Caverion, a global downturn will most likely negatively impact the general level of demand and the pricing environment also for Caverion’s offering. Most likely the demand for new construction projects will decrease, but there may also be an impact on smaller ad-hoc services and projects.
The corona crisis and the resulting downturn may also promote additional demand and new opportunities for some of Caverion’s solutions. As an example, remotely controlled buildings are helping customers to save time and money, but also enable to operate the buildings more safely. Special requirements also apply to ventilation and air-conditioning systems, increasing the demand for ventilation related upgrades based on new guidelines and requirements.
Despite corona and its economic effects, the overall megatrends in the industry, such as the increase of technology in built environments, energy efficiency requirements, increasing digitalisation and automation as well as urbanisation remain strong and are expected to promote demand for Caverion’s services and solutions over the coming years. Especially the sustainability trend is expected to continue strong. Increasing awareness of sustainability is supported by both EU-driven regulations and national legislation setting higher targets and actions for energy efficiency and carbon-neutrality.
The corona crisis and the economic downturn are in general expected to impact the demand environment negatively in Services, especially in ad-hoc services and small service projects. However, Caverion’s Services business is by nature more stable and resilient through business cycles than the Projects business. As technology in buildings increases, the need for new services and digital solutions is expected to increase. Customer focus on core operations continues to open up outsourcing and maintenance as well as technical building management opportunities for Caverion. In some cases, the demand for smaller ad-hoc work in empty buildings may also increase. There is a continued interest for services supporting sustainability, such as energy management. In Cooling, there is a technical change ongoing from F-gases into CO2-based refrigeration, providing increased need for upgrades and modernisations. Stimulus packages are also expected to gradually impact general demand in the Services business.
The corona crisis and the economic downturn are in general expected to impact the demand environment negatively in Projects. Most likely the demand for new construction projects will decrease, but on the other hand, renovation construction is expected to continue increasing. The current circumstances also allow doing repairs and many types of installation projects for unoccupied properties and sites. From the trends perspective, the requirements for increased energy efficiency, better indoor climate and tightening environmental legislation continue to drive demand over the coming years. Stimulus packages are also expected to gradually impact general demand in the Projects business.